Week 7 Seasonal Rankings: Standard | PPR
As I talked about last week, don't fall in love with positional values because it's an ever changing game. Last week we loved the expensive RBs and craved value at wide receiver. This week the script has flipped, with the high-priced RBs facing tougher matchups while Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Mike Evans look to be in line for huge games. That means we'll have to look for value somewhere besides wide receiver, and we'll get to that in a minute. First let's look at the top stacks.
People are falling all over themselves to bet the over in Atlanta this weekend. The game opened as the highest number of the week at 51.5, and now it's up to 53.5. With the Falcons being a big favorite, they have the highest implied total, and I wouldn't argue with anyone stacking them or the Chargers. Those are the chalky stacks, and it makes sense.
Julio is my favorite wide receiver in the game and Freeman is my favorite running back. It will be contrarian to play both of them together, but there will be plenty of points to go around.
If you're looking for something less obvious, I have a couple. I am going right back to the Chiefs passing game this week despite the egg they laid against the Raiders. That was good process, bad results. I would expect their ownership to be even lower than Week 6 and their upside is really no different. If you expect a similar game script in that game then I'd look at stacking the 49ers and Bucs game. Which is a perfect segue to my favorite value plays at each position:
Colin Kaepernick (FD $6,500, DK $5,300)
Kaepernick just scored 18 FanDuel points on the road against a good defense in terrible conditions. Now he comes home to face a mediocre Tampa Bay defense in what should be near-perfect conditions. Kaepernick is still risky, but his production on the ground certainly helps his floor.
I would set the expectation at 200 yards passing and 50 yards rushing. If he throws one touchdown pass, he was a decent value. If he runs for one as well, he was a great play and this isn't even approaching his ceiling. Pairing Kaepernick with Torrey Smith or Jeremy Kerley allows you to play just about whoever you want at the other receiver positions.
Jacquizz Rodgers (FD $5,600, DK $4,300)
Doug Martin will miss another week and Tampa Bay has already placed backup running back Charles Sims, on IR. In Rodgers' lone start of 2016, he saw 30 carries and five receptions. I wouldn't expect that type of volume, but he shouldn't need it against this 49ers defense.
San Francisco ranks dead last against the run, allowing 174 yards per game and 5 yards per carry. Rodgers is going to be extremely chalky, but I'm hoping other cheap options like Mike Davis and Mike Gillislee can temper his ownership. We'll have more on that on Sunday morning, but regardless, Rodgers is the top value play on both sites at RB.
Kendall Wright (FD $5,000, DK $3,700)
Wright reemerged as the No. 1 option in the Titans passing game just in time for a great matchup with the Colts. Yes, Indianapolis has been good against No. 1 WRs this year, but that should affect Wright, who has run 48 of his 52 snaps out of the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. That means Wright will avoid Vontae Davis entirely.
Jack Doyle (FD $4,700, DK $2,500)
Jack Doyle will see a larger role with Dwayne Allen out and he had been pretty good even with Allen active, especially in the red zone. Andrew Luck is really short on good options in the passing game, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he leans on T.Y. Hilton and Doyle. After Rob Gronksowki's monster Week 6, I would expect his ownership to climb, which could mean the cheap tight ends are more contrarian.
FanDuel tournament lineup
QB Colin Kaepernick $6,500
RB DeMarco Murray $8,700
RB Jacquizz Rodgers $5,600
WR Amari Cooper $7,900
WR Torrey Smith $5,600
WR Mike Evans $8,000
TE Rob Gronkowski $8,500
K Matt Bryant $4,700
DST New England Patriots $4,400
DraftKings tournament lineup
QB Jameis Winston $5,900
RB Devonta Freeman $5,900
RB Jacquizz Rodgers $4,300
WR Julio Jones $9,200
WR Mike Evans $7,800
WR Kendall Wright $3,700
TE Cameron Brate $2,900
FLEX DeMarco Murray $7,200
D New England Patriots $2,900
